Transport figures for better infrastructure

Measuring current usage is one thing, but being able to predict the transport demand of the future is crucial. That is why Rijkswaterstaat and ProRail, on behalf of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science, are responsible for calculating tomorrow’s mobility in order to anticipate the future. “ Improving and constructing existing and new infrastructure are long-term tasks: simply widening a road takes a few years, from the first explorations to the application of the lines. Which infrastructure does the Netherlands need?

BasGoed

Does that mean we use a glass ball? Fortunately not. The Basic Freight Transport Model, or BasGoed, has been developed to best map the infrastructure. This is a strategic calculation model that calculates future goods flows based on observed transport data and scenarios. This is done for two scenarios; assuming high and low economic growth.

Freight forecasts look more than 30 years ahead. The primary outcome is the amount of weight of goods (per type of goods, and both domestic and international and transit). This is translated into the number of transport movements per modality. When this is linked to the capacity of the future infrastructure, it becomes clear how pressure it will be on the water, road and rail. All kinds of predictions can be made based on these forecasts. For example, how many trains will use the Betuwe line in 2040, and what consequences will this have for the number of trucks on the A15? The effects of new legislation can also be estimated: will there be a shift between the modalities if stricter environmental measures are introduced? With forecasts you can also anticipate new developments. If you can estimate the effects of economies of scale in shipping or changes in fuel price in advance, you can prepare better and face fewer surprises.

Data

Past and present data play a very important role in calculating future flows of goods. That is why it is kept annually for all modalities how much and which goods are transported. For road transport, Statistics Netherlands conducts surveys among carriers and shippers. Rijkswaterstaat uses registrations at traffic stations and locks for inland shipping and maritime shipping. ProRail records train movements on the track and measures train weight with the Quo Vadis system. Customs data of all modalities are also used. Together with our partners, we are constantly improving this data collection and data exchange. Existing and new data sources are used to further map multimodal transport chains, in order to better predict the opportunities for synchromodal transport. RWS, Statistics Netherlands and ProRail rely on good cooperation with the logistics sector itself.

Prioritizing the load

By prioritizing the load, we try to make our forecasts purer and to be even better ready for tomorrow’s cargo. As a result, IenW can prepare accessibility in the Netherlands even better for the future.